Monday, November 18, 2013

Crude oil just can't catch a bid

Today we switched to the January contract just to witness the resumption of the now 9-week old downtrend. Lately, crude oil has just been unable to catch a bid that lasted longer than a few hours. According to my go-to guy energy consultant Anthony Rosado, WTI has had its largest open interest rolling from December to January and mostly February last Friday. Money managers reduced their net-long positions by 4.3% overall. So, in my opinion that explains in itself why rallies have been limited to a strict minimum and that every time crude oil catches a bid it is immediately clobbered towards lower and lower price levels. More downside is likely in the cards until we reach 91.54 according to Anthony. I've got to agree with him on that.

Is that what we can call the "Niagara Falls" syndrome on crude? :-0

Technically speaking, the market opened at 94.10, i.e. below and outside Friday's range and value area. The only gap left unfilled was the one from Friday standing at 94.45. It got filled within the first 30 minutes of the pit session. The initial balance at 60 ticks was pretty much in line/equals with its 10-day moving average indicating that volatility is picking up a little bit compared to last week. As far as YM is concerned, it was a rather dull day as most of the action (i.e. a new all-time high) had been done overnight mostly during the Asian session. YM opened at 15972 well above and outside of Friday's range. Below we still had 2 unfilled gaps sitting at 15839 and 15914 respectively that, needless to say, never came close of being challenged. The big 16000 round number is only a stone throw away and that shouldn't constitute a problem for the market to reach it overnight or tomorrow imo.

I took 3 trades today:

1. Long CL 94.53 at 9:16am, exit 94.43 at 9:51am for a -10 ticks loss.
2. Long CL 94.72 at 10:57am, exit 94.88 at 11:05am for a +16 ticks profit.
3. Long YM at 15985 at 11:03am, exit 15985 at 2:28pm for a breakeven trade. Result: +6 ticks of profit today.


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