Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Today's buy/sell signals on CL_F and YM_F

$CL_F Here are today's signals. Valid for overnight/tomorrow: SELL 94.16, stop 94.82, t/p open; BUY 92.84, stop 92.18, t/p open.

$YM_F Here are today's signals. Valid for overnight/tomorrow: SELL 16101, stop 16137, t/p open; BUY 16029, stop 15993, t/p open.

Happy and safe trading to all!

Monday, November 25, 2013

Today's buy/sell signals on CL_F and YM_F

$CL_F Here are today's signals. Valid for overnight/tomorrow: SELL 94.80, stop 95.42, t/p open; BUY 93.56, stop 92.94, t/p open. 

$YM_F Here are today's signals. Valid for overnight/tomorrow: SELL 16097, stop 16138, t/p open; BUY 16015, stop 15974, t/p open.

Happy and safe trading to all!

Sunday, November 24, 2013

Today's buy/sell signals on CL_F and YM_F

$CL_F Here are today's signals. Valid for overnight/tomorrow: SELL 94.78, stop 95.41, t/p open; BUY 93.52, stop 92.89, t/p open.

$YM_F Here are today's signals. Valid for overnight/tomorrow: SELL 16082, stop 16132, t/p open; BUY 15982, stop 15932, t/p open.

Happy and safe trading to all!

Thursday, November 21, 2013

Back with a new contribution to traders

Hi guys!

I took a little break following the end of my trading room experiment and would like to bring a new contribution to the WTI crude oil and e-mini Dow Jones traders communities. This is something that will not distract me from my day to day trading but something that I think may be of interest to some of you who may not have the time to analyze the market from all possible angles like I do every day. In parallel to my short term/scalping trading, I've been calculating for quite a bit of time now the daily potential inflection points of both CL_F and YM_F (as well as extremes extensions) using mainly a customized version of Fibonacci extensions and projections numbers that I have developed over time (got to give credit also to some other knowledgeable traders on the net, thanks to all of them).

So, I intend to publish here on a daily basis those numbers that represent potential buy/sell signals. As usual, be cautious with these signals as they are no holy grail. Nevertheless, I think you will like them as much as I do. Demo testing them for a while would be my best advice.

- Valid for overnight/tomorrow on WTI: SELL 95.89, stop 96.29, t/p open; BUY 94.59, stop 94.19, t/p open. Extremes: high 96.94 - low 93.54

- Valid for overnight/tomorrow on YM: SELL 16028, stop 16061, t/p open; BUY 15922, stop 15889, t/p open. Extremes: high 16115 - low 15835

Happy and safe trading to all! :-0

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

I think it's time for me to return to anonymity

The idea of launching a trading room got me excited me at first; I thought I could help some people get better trading results (how pretentious of me). But now faced with the harsh reality of hosting such a room I just can't seem to be able to get back "in the zone" like I used to when I was trading alone in my little corner of the world. It seems like when I'm in the room I feel compelled to trade. It's as if I would say to myself: "Hey, it's a trading room and we are all traders in here so I HAVE TO TRADE otherwise what is the objective of being in a trading room in the first place? People are not in here to hear me comment all day long about the market ups and downs while I'm sitting on my hands".

It's true. Nobody's in there to lose his/her time (me included). It may sound selfish but the sad truth is that since the beginning of this experiment, there hasn't been any added value in there for me. My trading has been bad and to make things worse I'm influencing some people to follow me in that direction. I'm sorry for those who lost money in the room because of some of the bad calls I made recently and I really wish they'll be able to recoup that money one way or another in the near future. Trading should be fun, not sad.

Take care guys!

Monday, November 18, 2013

Crude oil just can't catch a bid

Today we switched to the January contract just to witness the resumption of the now 9-week old downtrend. Lately, crude oil has just been unable to catch a bid that lasted longer than a few hours. According to my go-to guy energy consultant Anthony Rosado, WTI has had its largest open interest rolling from December to January and mostly February last Friday. Money managers reduced their net-long positions by 4.3% overall. So, in my opinion that explains in itself why rallies have been limited to a strict minimum and that every time crude oil catches a bid it is immediately clobbered towards lower and lower price levels. More downside is likely in the cards until we reach 91.54 according to Anthony. I've got to agree with him on that.

Is that what we can call the "Niagara Falls" syndrome on crude? :-0

Technically speaking, the market opened at 94.10, i.e. below and outside Friday's range and value area. The only gap left unfilled was the one from Friday standing at 94.45. It got filled within the first 30 minutes of the pit session. The initial balance at 60 ticks was pretty much in line/equals with its 10-day moving average indicating that volatility is picking up a little bit compared to last week. As far as YM is concerned, it was a rather dull day as most of the action (i.e. a new all-time high) had been done overnight mostly during the Asian session. YM opened at 15972 well above and outside of Friday's range. Below we still had 2 unfilled gaps sitting at 15839 and 15914 respectively that, needless to say, never came close of being challenged. The big 16000 round number is only a stone throw away and that shouldn't constitute a problem for the market to reach it overnight or tomorrow imo.

I took 3 trades today:

1. Long CL 94.53 at 9:16am, exit 94.43 at 9:51am for a -10 ticks loss.
2. Long CL 94.72 at 10:57am, exit 94.88 at 11:05am for a +16 ticks profit.
3. Long YM at 15985 at 11:03am, exit 15985 at 2:28pm for a breakeven trade. Result: +6 ticks of profit today.


Friday, November 15, 2013

An opex Friday a lot quieter than usual

It was a relatively quiet day today on all markets for an options expiration Friday. Lately the markets haven't been correlated at all, each one evolving in its own little world. In fact according to an expert in the matter, and friend of mine, Nick Mastrandrea of www.markettealeaves.com , it has now become a rare occurrence that markets are correlated. Especially since this taper - no taper jawboning by the Fed has started back in June according to him. Nick is sending out every morning a free, daily newsletter that discusses and teaches market correlation. Market Tea Leaves is published daily, pre-market in the US and you should give it a try. Very interesting and useful stuff guys.

Last time MACD and signal line have crossed bullishly was 2 months ago
Needless to say that when markets are evolving separately like they do now, it certainly doesn't help forecasting a trend direction. The market on crude opened at 93.90, i.e. within yesterday's range and value area. For a rare occurrence lately, the initial balance at 78 ticks was a big 38% above its 10-day average indicating that, very likely, most of crude's volatility for today had been spent during the first hour of the pit session. As far as YM is concerned, well that market is like a feather in the wind right now. Every time it falls a little bit, the "wind" effortlessly pushes it back up towards new highs. Not much to short in this market at this time to say the least. It is the "easy" trade right now... as long as the wind (Fed) blows of course.

I only took 1 trade today:

1. Long CL 94.00 at 9:02am, exit 94.28 at 9:10am for a +28 ticks profit. Results: +28 ticks today on CL, this week: -61 ticks on CL, +23 ticks on YM. Lousy week. Have a good week-end!